I'm as down on Earl Grant and the BC hoops program as I have been since Christian's last couple of years. Having said that, I thought I would try to find a reason for optimism. Things ebb and flow in college hoops and maybe Earl can engineer a turnaround. Here is the data that gives me a small reason to believe that Earl can turn this around and, at a minimum, make the NIT...
- The teams that BC has lost to in the ACC are a combined 24-15.
- If you exclude Clemson, when we had nobody available, the teams we have lost to are 21-11. (This is skewed by 8-0 UNC, but our schedule has been front half loaded.)
- The teams we have beaten are a combined 4-11.
- The record of the teams we play going forward excluding FSU and Duke are a combined 26-41.
- So let's look at this two ways:
- If BC loses all 3 games against FSU and Duke and wins 75-80% of the rest, their final ACC record would be around 9-11.
- If BC beats all the teams at or under .500 left on their schedule (the only .500 team is Cuse, who we have at home) and loses to every team above .500, their final ACC record will be 9-11.
Let's assume they go 1-1 in the ACC tourney. Is a final record of 19-14 overall and 10-12 in the ACC (including the tourney) good enough for the NIT? Given that there are no more autobids from non-power conferences, I would bet that is probably good enough. If they could swing one extra victory in the ACC and be .500 in conference as well as 20-13 overall, I would feel very good about that. I know we all wanted NCAA, but making the NIT could be sold as progress by Earl Grant and maybe that gets us some better players.
I still think Grant needs to fix his coaching, but I'm trying to be optimistic where I can.