I am looking for some feedback from more knowledgeable hockey fans on this post. I love hockey, but never played.
I wanted to analyze how Will and Cutter have done so far in year one. I pulled statistics for the two last number 1 picks (Celebrini and Bedard) to compare.
Smith and Celebrini are on the same team and obviously Celebrini gets more time when healthy.
I wanted to look by time on the ice to compare how they would be expected to do with equal time.
Shooting % - Will Smith is the highest (11.8%) while Cutter Gauthier is the lowest and outlier (8.0%).
Shooting volume - Celebrini takes 10.2 shots per hour on the ice vs. 5.7 for Will Smith, who is the low outlier.
Goals per hour on the ice: Celebrini leads with 1.2 goals per hour on the ice, Bedard is close at 1.0, and both BC guys are at 0.7.
Assists per hour: Bedard had 1.7, Celebrini is right behind with 1.6, Smith is at 1.2, and Gauthier is at 1.0.
Based on scoring, it seems the two top picks are doing better than the BC boys. I was wondering how much was them playing with better lines/players. Also, I notice a big difference is Power Play goals/assists between the #1 picks and our first rounders. How much of the increase in shots/assists is more time on the power play?
The +/- is where it gets interesting. I figured worse teams would have a worse plus minus. I prorated the teams scoring differential by the players time on the ice to get an expected +/- for an average player on that team who played the number of minutes each player did - and then compared that to the players actual +/-.
Cutter has the best +/- over expected (7 higher than expected) and the best overall at 0.
Will has the 2nd best +/- over expected (5 higher than expected) and the second best at -9.
Celebrini has the 3rd best +/- over expected (-2 below expected) and the third best at -20
Bedard has the worse over expected (-20 below expected) and -44 overall (longer year)
Is that not playing defense? Trying to hard to score and being out of position? Could some of them be on penalty kill? What is a more important stat category - +/- or scoring?
Watching Bedard last year, he was a super talented boy among men. He got pounded on boards and they eventually even took him out of face offs for a while.
I wanted to analyze how Will and Cutter have done so far in year one. I pulled statistics for the two last number 1 picks (Celebrini and Bedard) to compare.
Smith and Celebrini are on the same team and obviously Celebrini gets more time when healthy.
I wanted to look by time on the ice to compare how they would be expected to do with equal time.
Shooting % - Will Smith is the highest (11.8%) while Cutter Gauthier is the lowest and outlier (8.0%).
Shooting volume - Celebrini takes 10.2 shots per hour on the ice vs. 5.7 for Will Smith, who is the low outlier.
Goals per hour on the ice: Celebrini leads with 1.2 goals per hour on the ice, Bedard is close at 1.0, and both BC guys are at 0.7.
Assists per hour: Bedard had 1.7, Celebrini is right behind with 1.6, Smith is at 1.2, and Gauthier is at 1.0.
Based on scoring, it seems the two top picks are doing better than the BC boys. I was wondering how much was them playing with better lines/players. Also, I notice a big difference is Power Play goals/assists between the #1 picks and our first rounders. How much of the increase in shots/assists is more time on the power play?
The +/- is where it gets interesting. I figured worse teams would have a worse plus minus. I prorated the teams scoring differential by the players time on the ice to get an expected +/- for an average player on that team who played the number of minutes each player did - and then compared that to the players actual +/-.
Cutter has the best +/- over expected (7 higher than expected) and the best overall at 0.
Will has the 2nd best +/- over expected (5 higher than expected) and the second best at -9.
Celebrini has the 3rd best +/- over expected (-2 below expected) and the third best at -20
Bedard has the worse over expected (-20 below expected) and -44 overall (longer year)
Is that not playing defense? Trying to hard to score and being out of position? Could some of them be on penalty kill? What is a more important stat category - +/- or scoring?
Watching Bedard last year, he was a super talented boy among men. He got pounded on boards and they eventually even took him out of face offs for a while.
| Name | Team GP | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | TOI/G | PPG | PPA | S | SPCT | Team +/- | % of TOI | Expected +/- | Compared to Expected +/- | Seconds OI | Minutes OI | Hours OI | Shots/Hour | Goals/Hour | Assists/Hour |
| Connor Bedard C | 82 | 68 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -44 | 28 | 19:47 | 4 | 17 | 205 | 10.7 | -111 | 27.3% | -30 | -14 | 80,716 | 1,345 | 22.4 | 9.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 57 | 45 | 17 | 23 | 40 | -20 | 20 | 19:42 | 6 | 7 | 150 | 11.3 | -68 | 25.9% | -18 | -2 | 53,190 | 887 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Will Smith C | 57 | 49 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -9 | 10 | 14:42 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 11.8 | -68 | 21.1% | -14 | 5 | 43,218 | 720 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Cutter Gauthier LW | 54 | 54 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 0 | 14 | 14:17 | 2 | 4 | 113 | 8.0 | -28 | 23.8% | -7 | 7 | 46,278 | 771 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
