*******Official 2024 NFL Season Thread *********
- Thread starter bshay21
- Start date
Pre selfie era, I think, but might as well have been. Need to make sure this is never forgotten, though.
Myles Garrett has requested a trade from the Browns. Mike Vrabel just coached over there. Make it happen
I’m sure a guy who wants to win has no interest playing for a team that can’t even reliably bank on 5 wins next year.
Where have you been bro? We have a pro bowl QB now.
If you don't think that Jayden Daniels plus a real coach experience hasn't talked me into a whole lot of sh*t, you haven't read any of my thousands of BC basketball posts. 2023 Commanders were 31st in DVOA. Only six teams had better preseason win totals than Philly and Dallas. Patriots get the last place schedule with Falcons, Browns, Steelers, Raiders, Giants for home games. Saints, Bucs, Titans, Ravens, Bengals away. That's three playoff teams in addition to five horrific QB situations, and Atlanta.
Now the reports of the Dante Scarnecchia magic maybe kicking around the facility this year, I am gearing up for some Pats bets. I have no idea what to make of NFL trade value. What is Myles Garrett and one year on his deal worth? Khalil Mack got traded for both A. two firsts and a third as a 25 year old coming off two 1st team all pro and one pro bowl three seasons and then B. a second and a sixth after a 1st team all pro, 2nd team all pro, and pro bowl as a 29 year old. AJ Brown goes for a first and a third coming off his age 24 season. Peak Deandre Hopkins went for a cooked/injured David Johnson and a second.
I would start noodling around on Pickens, Metcalf, Deebo. Try to get one on the cheap and then revamp the OL with cap money. I feel like every time I see Tee Higgins, he looks incredible. I just get really nervous about the WR2 with a HOF WR1 next to him when he goes to his next stop. The Alvin Harper rule. But, hey, Pats have loads of space so it's still probably a risk worth taking.
I think a good draft/FA period could get the Pats to .500, if things break right. Higgins remains my guy. Went back and looked at his production sans Chase and it’s legit. He’s had 2 years of soft tissue injuries though, which gives me pause. But I’m a believer of the talent. I would definitely poke around any and all WR in trade as well. Cooper Kupp is now available but he is somehow 31.5 years-old and close to being cooked. Sure other guys will emerge.
I think Kupp is a buy low guy. He cooked in two games where Puka got ejected or was hurt. He also is always banged up along with Puka because McVay can't get enough of sending them as lead blockers on linebackers for some reason. WRs aren't meant to be inserted through the line to take on LB's but McVay loves it because the announcers always stroke him for it. If Kupp could just play slot and worry about catching the ball he can still produce.
Problem is the contract. You’re not taking him on his current deal and he’s a risky guy to extend. We also could have just f*cking drafted McConkey.
100%. I drafted Chris Godwin (RIP all his knee ligaments) in both fantasy leagues because Coen was putting him in the Kupp role. He was #1 in the NFL in first downs, yac, and receptions when he got hurt. Near the top in slot rate. Pats need a #1 outside guy either by speed or just big bodied contested catch guy. They also need a smart receiver that can just read how the defense is playing and get open, especially against zone.
Kupp is perfect for that. He doesn't come with the cap hit. Very little guaranteed money if he gets hurt again or stinks. If you told me the WR room was Higgins $30M cap hit, Kupp $12M, and the rest of the guys total about $10M that's $60M on your QB and WRs.
That's lower than most real contenders with the exception of maybe GB and Wash. Have to take advantage of Maye under $10M. Clock is ticking. Of course, the trade compensation is key. I have no idea what the trade value is but I'd go as high as a 4th or the Judon 3rd rounder from ATL. Certainly better value than Wallace, Robinson, Baker picks from Wolf last year.
Kupp feels like this year’s Keenan Allen. I think he went for a 4th, which feels about right.
And McDaniels is the same way. He just peppers the slots with targets.
We can't waste the first two years of Maye's contract with no weapons.
Tee on the outside
Kupp on the slot
Draft Woody Marks from USC as your James White in the 5th- think Junior Varsity Jahmyr Gibbs
Bring back Rhamondre from the dead and have him hold onto the ball as your 1st and 2nd down back.
Bring in NFL OLinemen through free agency and the draft.
Defense will be better just by having Vrabel in the building. Best way to help the defense is to stop having an offense that goes 3 and out and turns the ball over.
Pats would have to sacrifice too much draft capital for a guy going into his 9th (10th?) year for this to make sense. With all the money available under the cap to me the smart play is to spend on players going into their second contracts (25-ish in age) and build through the draft. I would collect picks, not trade them for someone who will be in his 30’s when the younger guys become acclimated. Also, $25-30 MM for a guy will be on the downside of his career when the youth hits their stride doesn’t really make sense
I'm not giving up the #4 overall for him. But I'd pay up for him. He's got two years left on his deal. The Cleveland cap hit doesn't come with him. Just the salary. $20M/year. for a guy that good with a two year risk is not a lot. He makes everyone on that defense better with the attention he gets.
NFL free agency is tricky. Not a lot of good players come out. Tagged or extended. Or they are traded and extended.
Last time the Pats had money to blow it was $70M on Henry, Jonnu, and Agholor. Spend on the OL/WR and trade draft capital for an impact defender. The 2nd round pick is mid 30s so near first rounder. 2026 #1. I'd probably do that. If Maye/Vrabel are the goods, it shouldn't be higher than a mid first. If they aren't, it won't matter, anyway.
Last decade or so, we've seen Hurts, Burrow, Mahomes multiple times, Purdy, Goff.
The NFL is different. You have to get after it if your QB has the goods. Maybe it goes bad if Maye turns out to be just a guy. But it's worth the risk.
Eli Manning…not a HOFer. My faith in humanity has been restored.
(he’ll eventually get in)
(he’ll eventually get in)
Between this and the bikini cheeseburger ad coming back to the Super Bowl, maybe Trump did finally make America great, again.
Zero MVP votes. Zero. Zero All Pro teams. Zero. How on earth does a QB belong when you play 14 full seasons and don't have a single MVP vote. Cam Newton won one. Baker Mayfield got two votes this year. Justin Herbert had two years with votes. Mark Rypien has MVP votes.
I also just read that theu changed the rules where instead of 80% of votes between five final candidates. It's 80% among seven.
That will make it harder. Next few years will be tough with some no doubt guys. Brees, Fitz, maybe Witten next year. Peterson and Gronk in 27. Brady and JJ Watt in 28.
Will be interesting to see how he does vs Ryan/Rivers as they come up. As Giants fans know, QBs don't play defense. Ryan led his team to 96 points in two title games and a SB. Eli led the Gmen to 81 total points in two title games and two SBs. Enjoy the checks from Manningcast and build a closet of the finest quarter zips. Play some sweet golf courses. You've earned it. Not the HOF.
I agree. I think you go all-in on guys while Maye is cheap. You'll never be able to surround your QB with as many good players as you can early on his rookie contract years. The bar from stinking as bad as the Pats did this year to playoffs is not that high. The Chargers were 5-12 last year and made the playoffs in year 1 of Harbaugh with 1 skill player who was any good.
If you get a guy like Garrett you make the entire defense better. The rest of the line is singled up in passing situations. Your Db's are better, etc. I'd pay for that type of guy. He can take the QB money that Maye will be making in 4 years and have a similar effect of a good qb on his side of the ball. (making others better). I think this is why Garrett makes sense for the Commanders. He is gonna have a hard time getting the $ he wants from a team with a vet QB that is a contender. But pairing up with one of these young guns he can get his $.
Focus on OL and getting skill guys in whatever way you can and you can sniff the playoffs in year 2 of Maye playing your last place schedule.
Amen ! Add the greatest kicker in the history of the sport, Adam Vinatieri, to the investigation too.
The change in the selection process this year hurt them both. The NFL wanted it to be more difficult to get in to the Hall, but in doing so went too far IMO.
Essentially, once it was whittled down to 7 modern finalists, the voters could only vote for 5 of them. And a player needs 80% to get in (or the top 3 vote getters if not enough get 80%). This means the votes got split. I saw an article which said that statistically, all things being equal, it meant that each nominee had a roughly 7.3% chance of being elected.
In the past, it was narrowed down to 10 finalists, and then there was just a yes/no vote on each. If a player got 80% yesses, they were in. No splitting of the votes. I imagine voters were torn about getting players in who had been waiting for time versus first-ballot players who they figure will get in over the next 2-3 years.
Problem is this just creates a log-jam of worthy players getting stuck in the queue. I believe NFL will need to tweak the process again.
Good news for Luke (and Vinitiari) is that because they were already finalists this year, they automatically advance to the finalist round next year. That helps with the logjam problem for them at least.
The whole "eight years isn't enough of a resume" is horseshit considering they just let seven year pro Sterling Sharpe in.
PS - glad they let Sharpe in; his last three years prior to his forced retirement (1992-94) were right there with Rice's best three years. Would have put up crazy number with Favre if played another 5-7 years.
Yup. Sterling was awesome. Also never missed a game until the neck injury. TD machine in an era when WRs rarely were.
SB Prop Bets placed (so far):
1. KC Defense 2+ TDs. 55/1
2. Noah Gray Anytime TD. 6/1
3. Each team 3+ rushing TDs. 95/1
4. Any QB catch a pass. 16/1.
5. Mahomes/Devonta Smith/Saquon to lead passing/receiving/rushing. 12/1
6. Jahan Dotson 2+ catches/15+ yards. +455
7. Devonta Smith 50+ yards each half. 21/1
8. Successful 55+ yard FG. +470.
9. Jahan Dotson 1st TD 80/1
10. Jahan Dotson anytime TD 17/1
11. Jahan Dotson last TD 70/1.
I don't have a feel for the side of this game other than Eagles should win but trusting Hurts/Sirianni vs Mahomes/Reid is tough to swallow. I have been listening to guys on nerdcasts and shows I like all week. The big takeaways were Devonta Smith is in a great spot and Jahan Dotson has had 55% and 63% snap count in the playoff games. I am not sure Barkely runs wild against this KC D so an Eagles win probably has more than usual passing involved. And if they are down a score or two, there will, obviously, be more.
Fun way to watch a hate watch type game. Just need one, really, to pop.
1. KC Defense 2+ TDs. 55/1
2. Noah Gray Anytime TD. 6/1
3. Each team 3+ rushing TDs. 95/1
4. Any QB catch a pass. 16/1.
5. Mahomes/Devonta Smith/Saquon to lead passing/receiving/rushing. 12/1
6. Jahan Dotson 2+ catches/15+ yards. +455
7. Devonta Smith 50+ yards each half. 21/1
8. Successful 55+ yard FG. +470.
9. Jahan Dotson 1st TD 80/1
10. Jahan Dotson anytime TD 17/1
11. Jahan Dotson last TD 70/1.
I don't have a feel for the side of this game other than Eagles should win but trusting Hurts/Sirianni vs Mahomes/Reid is tough to swallow. I have been listening to guys on nerdcasts and shows I like all week. The big takeaways were Devonta Smith is in a great spot and Jahan Dotson has had 55% and 63% snap count in the playoff games. I am not sure Barkely runs wild against this KC D so an Eagles win probably has more than usual passing involved. And if they are down a score or two, there will, obviously, be more.
Fun way to watch a hate watch type game. Just need one, really, to pop.
This is an interesting prop SB. Brown, Devonta, and Goedert all did well in last SB, especially Devonta. I think KC focuses on Saquon early and sees what Hurts can do. KC has been weak against TEs so it feels like a good spot for Goedert. Dotson’s o/u is 2.5 so you’re basically banking on a catch and that feels like good value in a likely shootout.
As for KC, they’re always really hard to but this feels like a game where Mahomes does a lot of short passes, like those Brady games against Baltimore where you knew you couldn’t run. O/u for Hopkins and JuJu are 11.5 and 16.5 so you could get it with just 1 catch and they basically rotate as the #3 WR. If Mahomes converts a deep ball, I think that means Hollywood Brown. They seem to do a lot more short stuff with Worthy. I also like Perine over 7.5. He’s the dumpoff guy and Eagles have the DL to force a lot of 3rd and longs and quick dump offs.
Now watch Saquon get 34 carries and Mahomes funnel 21 balls to Kelce.
Luke absolutely dominated the NFL in every year that he played. He should be a unanimous first time ballot no-brainer.
I've always been liked HOF cases in sports where it's something like 8 crazy years vs 14 very good ones. But I would acknowledge the other side of it. It's hard to play long at an elite level. Don Sutton was on the Dodger team that went to the '66 WS. He pitched against the Red Sox in the 1986 ALCS. On the '88 Dodgers. That's nuts. But how is he in and not Andruw Jones? Because Andrew Jones was bad when he was 32 years old? The guy was the best defensive CF of my lifetime and had 400+ HR.
And Kuechly was better at LB than Jones was as a baseball player. I actually had forgotten he was on the ballot when the rest got announced. These places are museums and tell the story of their sport. Your first thought when a HOFer comes up is that person was in the conversation for best player at his position at some point in his career. If you had a draft to win a game at their peak, Luke is on the short list. Sterling Sharpe's peak was incredible. Tony Boselli is in the HOF and played 91 games. And he should be.
I really like Philly on both sides of the line, and if KC pays too much attention to Saquon they have the weapons to hurt them. The biggest concern for me is the QB: Hurts may be the Achilles Heel. I can definitely see him get rattled early and fall apart.
Think Philly needs to score early, get a two-score lead and try to control the clock. If it is tight down the stretch KC wins.
Love Goedert and Worthy for plus yards and anytime TD. Also took Gainwell anytime TD at +1400…great value
DK doesn't seem to have it unless I'm either blind or retarded but if any of the other apps do I'd hit a Hurts over 0.5 receptions or receiving yards for anything over about +2000. I think we pull out a trick play at some point
A Philly QB catching a pass in a SB? I’ll believe it when I see it…
I am not betting a side because i refuse to bet against Mahomes/Reid.
I took:
Gray over 12.5 yds rec
Perine over 8.5 rush + rec yds
Mahomes over 5.5 rush attempts
Will there be a successful 2 pt play: yes
Hollywood Brown over 38.5 yds rec
I dont have a feel for eagles side but i will be pulling for them.
Eagles are much worse covering vs 2 TE sets so I think chiefs feed the TEs. They also play more man so I think that hurts guys like juju and helps both Mahomes rush yds and guys like hollywood/worthy who could break a long one with 1 mistake
I took:
Gray over 12.5 yds rec
Perine over 8.5 rush + rec yds
Mahomes over 5.5 rush attempts
Will there be a successful 2 pt play: yes
Hollywood Brown over 38.5 yds rec
I dont have a feel for eagles side but i will be pulling for them.
Eagles are much worse covering vs 2 TE sets so I think chiefs feed the TEs. They also play more man so I think that hurts guys like juju and helps both Mahomes rush yds and guys like hollywood/worthy who could break a long one with 1 mistake
Agree rooting for Philly wouldn't bet against KC.
The over makes sense but probably shy away from that.
The gainwell anytime td is great value.
The Dotson props offer good value.
KC loves to throw to their strays so any Watson, gray, perine props have good value.
The RB receiving props have very good value.
Mahomes will have to run for KC to have a chance.
The Eagles WRs should be running deep on every play, make KC choose between stopping them or saquon.
Philly and KC love trickeration so QB receptions, anyone other than qb throwing td passes are fun bets.
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