This is inexact folks, so bear with me. And frankly some of you might have valuable insights that could make this a even more accurate. But I thought it'd be an interesting exercise.
Depth chart and the rankings
Justin Rowland
EagleAction.com Recruiting Analyst
Talk about it in The Eagles Nest
EagleAction.com breaks down a possible offensive depth chart in the context of how those players were ranked in high school.
Both Wade and his backups were three-stars, but at other positions the three-stars are generally higher on the depth chart than the twos.
This will be an imperfect analysis for a number of reasons. For one, we don't have any way of knowing what BC's season-opener depth chart will look like. But that's a minor flaw in this analysis because we do have a pretty good idea of what the two-deep will look like, roughly.
So everyone knows what we're basing these numbers on, here are our tentative, projected starters - and our readers are free to join in the conversation and to take issue with projections here. We cannot account for how fall-arriving true freshmen will impact the depth chart, if at all.
Actually, we will list 12 offensive starters rather than 11, which seems ridiculous on the surface but really isn't, because formations vary so much and it's customary to list three starting receivers since the receiver positions are so different, and because BC needs to account for fullbacks and tight ends more so than most other programs, even.
Below you will see starters and backups listed. In parentheticals you'll find the player's former star rating (2-5) followed by their Rivals Rating (5.2-6.1). In the case of the offensive linemen those numbers will follow their position (C, G, T).
QB 1: Darius Wade (3, 5.6), QB 2: Elijah Robinson (3, 5.6)
RB 1: Jonathan Hilliman (4, 5.8), RB Backup: Tyler Rouse (3, 5.2), RB Backup: Myles Willis (3, 5.6)
Starting WRs: Sherman Alston (3, 5.5), Charlie Callinan (3, 5.5), Thadd Smith (3, 5.7)
Backup WRs: Bobby Swigert (3, 5.7)
Starting OL's: Frank Taylor (C - 3, 5.7), Dave Bowen (T - 2, 5.4), James Hendren (T - 3, 5.5), Harris Williams (G -3, 5.5), Jon Baker (G - 3, 5.6)
Backup OL's: Sam Schmal (C - 2, 5.4), Jim Cashman (T - 3, 5.7), Chris Lindstrom (OL - 3, 5.5), Ryan Conte (G - NR)
TE 1: Mike Giacone (3, 5.6), TE 2: Louie Addazio (2, 5.4)
FB 1: Bobby Wolford (3, 5.5), FB 2: Sean Burke (NR)
That's the offensive depth chart, or a rough stab at it. When you're dealing with young players like Robinson and Lindstrom - early enrollees - there's no telling where they'll be after fall camp. Others have more of a stranglehold on their spots, like Hilliman, Alston and Callinan. We're open to suggestions - for example, OurLads.com (a site that compiles projected depth charts) has Lindstrom as a starter, though at tackle rather than guard. The point is, especially up front there's room for debate.
BC is really unique in terms of depth charts because the 'starter' tag hinges largely on what positional packages they put on the field more so than most programs, and because of the shuffling up front this year, not to mention the quarterback uncertainty and the 'by-committee' running back approach. Come to think of it, putting together a BC offensive depth chart is quite a task and very inexact. But it's our best effort.
We'll stick to breaking down the offensive depth chart by ranking here.
Based on our projected depth chart, with those 12 'starters' (as explained earlier), which again is very much unofficial and a projection:
- BC would be starting one four-star (Hilliman)
- BC would be starting ten three-stars.
- BC would only be starting one two-star (Bowen), a redshirt senior.
Some things jump out immediately.
For good or bad, BC will rely heavily on its youngsters from the Class of 2014.
Let's take the Class of 2012 as our starting point. That'd be the senior (or RS-Junior) class. By our count from the 2012-2015 classes BC signed 15 two-star prospects that were either labeled as offensive prospects or athletes. Of those 15 none are starting with Bowen joining the program before that.
Now, that conclusion doesn't tell the whole story. Many of those two stars stand to contribute in a significant way and many are young. But it does stand to reason that the numbers on the first team so heavily favor three-star recruits that there seems to be a substantial difference in the likelihood of a three-star contributing than a two-star.
At tight end, fullback, wide receiver and offensive line in several cases there's a rating dip in one or two instances, from the three-star starter to the two-star projected backup. Again, that's not a blanket condemnation of BC's two-star recruits, but once again there's a clear trend indicating three- and four-star offensive players are much more likely to start.
It is true that BC signed more three-stars than two-stars, but the proportion tells us that the discrepancy does not totally account for the ratio of three-star starters to two-star starters. It's a significant difference. That shouldn't come as a big surprise, but it's worth noting.
Something else jumps out right away. Aside from the fact that Steve Addazio's skill position recruits have already begun to shoulder the huge brunt of the production (disproportionately so, compared to other third-year coaches in his position), BC's Class of 2014 will be counted on in an enormous way.
It's a bit early to put so many eggs in the basket of your redshirt freshmen and true sophomores, so that's a sobering note to remember. On the other hand, some of those players - like Alston - are either already proven or have received enough praise from the staff to warrant legitimate optimism. It does seem a bit rare for such a young crop of players to occupy so many substantial positions on the two-deep of a Power Five offensive depth chart. Were there an experienced quarterback returning to provide leadership and rally everyone together, that wouldn't be quite so worrisome.
But breaking in a young quarterback with such a green offense across the rest of the board is a tad concerning. If you're going to change offensive coordinators, now may be the time to do it with so much change taking place. That's less of a midstream change for fewer players, and continuity is important to development.
Another positive note: BC's Class of 2015 will make contributions in several spots on offense - Lindstrom, possibly Robinson (depth) and some others. And if you care about the ratio of three- to two-star players, that class is heavy on the latter. There are 11 three-star offensive players or athletes that are likely to play offense, compared to just a pair of two-star incoming freshmen on offense (Gowins, Phillips). And interestingly enough, depending on who you talk to, Gowins and Phillips may be two of the players with the highest expectations.
Depth chart and the rankings
Justin Rowland
EagleAction.com Recruiting Analyst
Talk about it in The Eagles Nest
EagleAction.com breaks down a possible offensive depth chart in the context of how those players were ranked in high school.
Both Wade and his backups were three-stars, but at other positions the three-stars are generally higher on the depth chart than the twos.
This will be an imperfect analysis for a number of reasons. For one, we don't have any way of knowing what BC's season-opener depth chart will look like. But that's a minor flaw in this analysis because we do have a pretty good idea of what the two-deep will look like, roughly.
So everyone knows what we're basing these numbers on, here are our tentative, projected starters - and our readers are free to join in the conversation and to take issue with projections here. We cannot account for how fall-arriving true freshmen will impact the depth chart, if at all.
Actually, we will list 12 offensive starters rather than 11, which seems ridiculous on the surface but really isn't, because formations vary so much and it's customary to list three starting receivers since the receiver positions are so different, and because BC needs to account for fullbacks and tight ends more so than most other programs, even.
Below you will see starters and backups listed. In parentheticals you'll find the player's former star rating (2-5) followed by their Rivals Rating (5.2-6.1). In the case of the offensive linemen those numbers will follow their position (C, G, T).
QB 1: Darius Wade (3, 5.6), QB 2: Elijah Robinson (3, 5.6)
RB 1: Jonathan Hilliman (4, 5.8), RB Backup: Tyler Rouse (3, 5.2), RB Backup: Myles Willis (3, 5.6)
Starting WRs: Sherman Alston (3, 5.5), Charlie Callinan (3, 5.5), Thadd Smith (3, 5.7)
Backup WRs: Bobby Swigert (3, 5.7)
Starting OL's: Frank Taylor (C - 3, 5.7), Dave Bowen (T - 2, 5.4), James Hendren (T - 3, 5.5), Harris Williams (G -3, 5.5), Jon Baker (G - 3, 5.6)
Backup OL's: Sam Schmal (C - 2, 5.4), Jim Cashman (T - 3, 5.7), Chris Lindstrom (OL - 3, 5.5), Ryan Conte (G - NR)
TE 1: Mike Giacone (3, 5.6), TE 2: Louie Addazio (2, 5.4)
FB 1: Bobby Wolford (3, 5.5), FB 2: Sean Burke (NR)
That's the offensive depth chart, or a rough stab at it. When you're dealing with young players like Robinson and Lindstrom - early enrollees - there's no telling where they'll be after fall camp. Others have more of a stranglehold on their spots, like Hilliman, Alston and Callinan. We're open to suggestions - for example, OurLads.com (a site that compiles projected depth charts) has Lindstrom as a starter, though at tackle rather than guard. The point is, especially up front there's room for debate.
BC is really unique in terms of depth charts because the 'starter' tag hinges largely on what positional packages they put on the field more so than most programs, and because of the shuffling up front this year, not to mention the quarterback uncertainty and the 'by-committee' running back approach. Come to think of it, putting together a BC offensive depth chart is quite a task and very inexact. But it's our best effort.
We'll stick to breaking down the offensive depth chart by ranking here.
Based on our projected depth chart, with those 12 'starters' (as explained earlier), which again is very much unofficial and a projection:
- BC would be starting one four-star (Hilliman)
- BC would be starting ten three-stars.
- BC would only be starting one two-star (Bowen), a redshirt senior.
Some things jump out immediately.
For good or bad, BC will rely heavily on its youngsters from the Class of 2014.
Let's take the Class of 2012 as our starting point. That'd be the senior (or RS-Junior) class. By our count from the 2012-2015 classes BC signed 15 two-star prospects that were either labeled as offensive prospects or athletes. Of those 15 none are starting with Bowen joining the program before that.
Now, that conclusion doesn't tell the whole story. Many of those two stars stand to contribute in a significant way and many are young. But it does stand to reason that the numbers on the first team so heavily favor three-star recruits that there seems to be a substantial difference in the likelihood of a three-star contributing than a two-star.
At tight end, fullback, wide receiver and offensive line in several cases there's a rating dip in one or two instances, from the three-star starter to the two-star projected backup. Again, that's not a blanket condemnation of BC's two-star recruits, but once again there's a clear trend indicating three- and four-star offensive players are much more likely to start.
It is true that BC signed more three-stars than two-stars, but the proportion tells us that the discrepancy does not totally account for the ratio of three-star starters to two-star starters. It's a significant difference. That shouldn't come as a big surprise, but it's worth noting.
Something else jumps out right away. Aside from the fact that Steve Addazio's skill position recruits have already begun to shoulder the huge brunt of the production (disproportionately so, compared to other third-year coaches in his position), BC's Class of 2014 will be counted on in an enormous way.
It's a bit early to put so many eggs in the basket of your redshirt freshmen and true sophomores, so that's a sobering note to remember. On the other hand, some of those players - like Alston - are either already proven or have received enough praise from the staff to warrant legitimate optimism. It does seem a bit rare for such a young crop of players to occupy so many substantial positions on the two-deep of a Power Five offensive depth chart. Were there an experienced quarterback returning to provide leadership and rally everyone together, that wouldn't be quite so worrisome.
But breaking in a young quarterback with such a green offense across the rest of the board is a tad concerning. If you're going to change offensive coordinators, now may be the time to do it with so much change taking place. That's less of a midstream change for fewer players, and continuity is important to development.
Another positive note: BC's Class of 2015 will make contributions in several spots on offense - Lindstrom, possibly Robinson (depth) and some others. And if you care about the ratio of three- to two-star players, that class is heavy on the latter. There are 11 three-star offensive players or athletes that are likely to play offense, compared to just a pair of two-star incoming freshmen on offense (Gowins, Phillips). And interestingly enough, depending on who you talk to, Gowins and Phillips may be two of the players with the highest expectations.
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