A potential nightmare for BC and the bowl selection process is developing that may keep BC from knowing whether it is bowl-eligible or not until Dec. 14.
Here’s what would have to happen for that to occur:
- BC finishes 5-7, but Duke finishes 4-8, making BC the first 5-7 team to be picked if one is needed.
- At just before midnight Nov 30, when all the regular season games have been played except two, 77 teams are bowl-eligible and BC is sitting there ready as team #78.
- Unfortunately, those two remaining games are Army at Hawaii (just starting at midnight Nov 30) and Army-Navy (two weeks later). Army (now 5-6) needs to finish 6-7 to be bowl-eligible ahead of BC. Or to put it another way, they need to lose two more before they are deemed bowl-ineligible. So an Army loss to Hawaii would mean waiting two more weeks to see if they beat Navy and finish 6-7 and take that 78th spot.
- And even if BC wins a sixth game, the bowl selection process might still be held up by the Army situation. And no matter what, you have to wait until Dec. 1 for the Army-Hawaii result.
Hopefully if this develops, the bowl selection process will have an answer, preferably favorable to BC, when bowl selections are announced December 8th. A similar issue with the lateness of the Army-Navy game almost happened three years ago, when Navy was in the running for a NY6 bowl as the best non-Power 5 team. But then, they were already bowl-eligible, so it was only going to be an issue with what bowl they were going to be selected for.
Of course, the problem is also resolved for BC if they beat either ND or Pittsburgh.
Anyway, there was not much else that really changed this week.
- Minnesota’s loss further clouds whether an SEC or Big 10 team is chosen as the Orange Bowl opponent. A Citrus Bowl bid for the ACC is in the balance, but we likely won’t really know that answer until the December 8th announcements. So, we’ll be hopeful and leave the Big 10 as the ACC Orange Bowl opponent for our projections.
- Clemson continued their hold on a Top 4 spot.
- Notre Dame didn’t hurt their chances of climbing back into a NY6 bowl, which would add another ACC bowl this year.
Now the numbers.
78 teams get bowl invites this year. Of the 130 Div 1A teams, 63 are now bowl-eligible and 14 more are one win away, all with 5-5 records. 26 teams are out and 27 more are one loss away from being out. 26 of those teams have 4-6 records, Army is at 5-6.
So if we were to predict 77 teams are in and 53 are out, you see how close it may be for whether a 5-7 team is needed or not. The schedules favor some 4-6 teams winning both of their final two games, as well as some 5-5 teams losing both. Obviously, this gets further resolved after next week’s games.
If the season ended today, there would be 11 official spots for the ACC (this might change after Tuesday’s CFP poll is announced).
1. CFB Playoffs - Clemson
2 NY6 Orange Bowl - Now a tossup between VT, UVA, Pitt. Hopefully, a Big 10 team is the opponent.
3 Citrus Bowl - Notre Dame.
4.Camping World Bowl. One of VT, UVA, Pitt, WF.
5-8. Tier One Bowls (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Music/Gator). Louisville, Miami and the two teams not chosen for either #2 or #4 above.
9-11 Military, Independence. Quick Lane. Pick 3 from BC, NCSt, Duke, NC, FSU, Syracuse (5-6 losses).
Other possibilities:
12 Birmingham/Citrus. An ACC team will get a Citrus Bowl invite if their Orange Bowl opponent is from the Big 10. Right now, it’s a close call between the Big 10 and SEC. However, if the SEC gets a Citrus Bowl bid, they may not have enough teams to put one in the Birmingham Bowl, which would then become an ACC bowl. So one or the other is a possibility for an ACC bowl, but probably not both.
13. Gasparilla Bowl. American vs. Conf USA. ACC gets a shot if either conference can’t fill their spot, but both conferences appear to have teams available right now.
14-16. With two teams in the CFP, the SEC appear to have 12 spots for 8 teams. The SEC doesn’t really have a pecking order for their bowls, other than the top 2 and the bottom 2 (Birmingham, Independence).
So if we assume 11 bowls, ACC-ND have 9 teams in, BC at one win away, and 4 teams two wins away from bowl eligibility. Only GT is eliminated right now. .
So what helps the ACC the next two weeks?
- LSU and Georgia staying in the Top 4.
- Alabama beating Auburn and FSU beating Florida in two weeks, which would help a Big 10 team get the Orange Bowl bid.
- I won’t predict ND beating BC.
- And for BC, one more win in the last two games.
Here’s what would have to happen for that to occur:
- BC finishes 5-7, but Duke finishes 4-8, making BC the first 5-7 team to be picked if one is needed.
- At just before midnight Nov 30, when all the regular season games have been played except two, 77 teams are bowl-eligible and BC is sitting there ready as team #78.
- Unfortunately, those two remaining games are Army at Hawaii (just starting at midnight Nov 30) and Army-Navy (two weeks later). Army (now 5-6) needs to finish 6-7 to be bowl-eligible ahead of BC. Or to put it another way, they need to lose two more before they are deemed bowl-ineligible. So an Army loss to Hawaii would mean waiting two more weeks to see if they beat Navy and finish 6-7 and take that 78th spot.
- And even if BC wins a sixth game, the bowl selection process might still be held up by the Army situation. And no matter what, you have to wait until Dec. 1 for the Army-Hawaii result.
Hopefully if this develops, the bowl selection process will have an answer, preferably favorable to BC, when bowl selections are announced December 8th. A similar issue with the lateness of the Army-Navy game almost happened three years ago, when Navy was in the running for a NY6 bowl as the best non-Power 5 team. But then, they were already bowl-eligible, so it was only going to be an issue with what bowl they were going to be selected for.
Of course, the problem is also resolved for BC if they beat either ND or Pittsburgh.
Anyway, there was not much else that really changed this week.
- Minnesota’s loss further clouds whether an SEC or Big 10 team is chosen as the Orange Bowl opponent. A Citrus Bowl bid for the ACC is in the balance, but we likely won’t really know that answer until the December 8th announcements. So, we’ll be hopeful and leave the Big 10 as the ACC Orange Bowl opponent for our projections.
- Clemson continued their hold on a Top 4 spot.
- Notre Dame didn’t hurt their chances of climbing back into a NY6 bowl, which would add another ACC bowl this year.
Now the numbers.
78 teams get bowl invites this year. Of the 130 Div 1A teams, 63 are now bowl-eligible and 14 more are one win away, all with 5-5 records. 26 teams are out and 27 more are one loss away from being out. 26 of those teams have 4-6 records, Army is at 5-6.
So if we were to predict 77 teams are in and 53 are out, you see how close it may be for whether a 5-7 team is needed or not. The schedules favor some 4-6 teams winning both of their final two games, as well as some 5-5 teams losing both. Obviously, this gets further resolved after next week’s games.
If the season ended today, there would be 11 official spots for the ACC (this might change after Tuesday’s CFP poll is announced).
1. CFB Playoffs - Clemson
2 NY6 Orange Bowl - Now a tossup between VT, UVA, Pitt. Hopefully, a Big 10 team is the opponent.
3 Citrus Bowl - Notre Dame.
4.Camping World Bowl. One of VT, UVA, Pitt, WF.
5-8. Tier One Bowls (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Music/Gator). Louisville, Miami and the two teams not chosen for either #2 or #4 above.
9-11 Military, Independence. Quick Lane. Pick 3 from BC, NCSt, Duke, NC, FSU, Syracuse (5-6 losses).
Other possibilities:
12 Birmingham/Citrus. An ACC team will get a Citrus Bowl invite if their Orange Bowl opponent is from the Big 10. Right now, it’s a close call between the Big 10 and SEC. However, if the SEC gets a Citrus Bowl bid, they may not have enough teams to put one in the Birmingham Bowl, which would then become an ACC bowl. So one or the other is a possibility for an ACC bowl, but probably not both.
13. Gasparilla Bowl. American vs. Conf USA. ACC gets a shot if either conference can’t fill their spot, but both conferences appear to have teams available right now.
14-16. With two teams in the CFP, the SEC appear to have 12 spots for 8 teams. The SEC doesn’t really have a pecking order for their bowls, other than the top 2 and the bottom 2 (Birmingham, Independence).
So if we assume 11 bowls, ACC-ND have 9 teams in, BC at one win away, and 4 teams two wins away from bowl eligibility. Only GT is eliminated right now. .
So what helps the ACC the next two weeks?
- LSU and Georgia staying in the Top 4.
- Alabama beating Auburn and FSU beating Florida in two weeks, which would help a Big 10 team get the Orange Bowl bid.
- I won’t predict ND beating BC.
- And for BC, one more win in the last two games.
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