While the ACC pretty much re-arranged their bowl deck chairs this week, there was some good news in other results.
- Minnesota’s win makes a Big 10 team a possible Orange Bowl opponent. That in turn would put an ACC team into the Citrus Bowl. From today’s polls, PSU would be in the Orange Bowl over Florida. This might change if Oklahoma makes the Top 4 over Alabama in the CFP poll Tuesday.
- Clemson improved their chances of staying in the Top 4.
- Notre Dame improved their chances of climbing back into a NY6 bowl, which would add another ACC bowl this year.
78 teams get bowl invites this year. Of the 130 Div 1A teams, 53 are now bowl-eligible and 18 more are one win away. 19 teams are out and 15 more are one loss away from being out.
So we’ll predict 71 teams are in, 34 are out, and 25 teams (virtual all 4-5 right now) still have a chance for the last 7 spots. So it doesn’t look like any 5-7 teams need to be invited just yet.
If the season ended today, there would be 11 official spots for the ACC (this might change after Tuesday’s CFP poll is announced).
1. CFB Playoffs - Clemson
2 NY6 Orange Bowl - WF. Hopefully, a Big 10 team is the opponent.
3 Citrus Bowl - Notre Dame.
4.Camping World Bowl. Virginia.
5-8. Tier One Bowls (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Music/Gator). Pitt, Louisville, VT, Miami all have 3 or 4 losses.
9-11 Military, Independence. Quick Lane. Pick 3 from BC, NCSt, Duke, NC, FSU (5 losses).
Other possibilities:
12. Birmingham/Citrus. An ACC team will get a Citrus Bowl invite if their Orange Bowl opponent is from the Big 10. Right now, it’s a close call between the Big 10 and SEC. However, if the SEC gets a Citrus Bowl bid, they may not have enough teams to put one in the Birmingham Bowl, which would then become an ACC bowl. So one or the other is a possibility for an ACC bowl, but probably not both.
13. Gasparilla Bowl. American vs. Conf USA. ACC gets a shot if either conference can’t fill their spot, but both conferences appear to have teams available right now.
14-16. With two teams in the CFP, the SEC appear to have 12 spots for 8 teams. The SEC doesn’t really have a pecking order for their bowls, other than the top 2 and the bottom 2 (Birmingham, Independence).
So if we assume 11 bowls, ACC-ND have 8 teams with 4 losses or less, and 5 more with 5 losses. Six teams are in, 4 are one win away (VT needs 7 wins due to playing 2 FCS teams), 3 are at 4-5. The 7 teams not yet in are at least two losses away from being bowl-ineligible, so no one will get cut this week.
And Syracuse with 6 losses is still a possibility, while GT is not.
So what helps the ACC this week?
- LSU and Alabama staying in the Top 4, otherwise one of them or Georgia is more likely to end up in the Orange Bowl.
- ND beating #21 Navy, while Baylor, Auburn lose to their higher-ranked Top 25 opponents.
- And for BC, a week of recovery before at least one more win in the last two games.
- Minnesota’s win makes a Big 10 team a possible Orange Bowl opponent. That in turn would put an ACC team into the Citrus Bowl. From today’s polls, PSU would be in the Orange Bowl over Florida. This might change if Oklahoma makes the Top 4 over Alabama in the CFP poll Tuesday.
- Clemson improved their chances of staying in the Top 4.
- Notre Dame improved their chances of climbing back into a NY6 bowl, which would add another ACC bowl this year.
78 teams get bowl invites this year. Of the 130 Div 1A teams, 53 are now bowl-eligible and 18 more are one win away. 19 teams are out and 15 more are one loss away from being out.
So we’ll predict 71 teams are in, 34 are out, and 25 teams (virtual all 4-5 right now) still have a chance for the last 7 spots. So it doesn’t look like any 5-7 teams need to be invited just yet.
If the season ended today, there would be 11 official spots for the ACC (this might change after Tuesday’s CFP poll is announced).
1. CFB Playoffs - Clemson
2 NY6 Orange Bowl - WF. Hopefully, a Big 10 team is the opponent.
3 Citrus Bowl - Notre Dame.
4.Camping World Bowl. Virginia.
5-8. Tier One Bowls (Belk, Sun, Pinstripe, Music/Gator). Pitt, Louisville, VT, Miami all have 3 or 4 losses.
9-11 Military, Independence. Quick Lane. Pick 3 from BC, NCSt, Duke, NC, FSU (5 losses).
Other possibilities:
12. Birmingham/Citrus. An ACC team will get a Citrus Bowl invite if their Orange Bowl opponent is from the Big 10. Right now, it’s a close call between the Big 10 and SEC. However, if the SEC gets a Citrus Bowl bid, they may not have enough teams to put one in the Birmingham Bowl, which would then become an ACC bowl. So one or the other is a possibility for an ACC bowl, but probably not both.
13. Gasparilla Bowl. American vs. Conf USA. ACC gets a shot if either conference can’t fill their spot, but both conferences appear to have teams available right now.
14-16. With two teams in the CFP, the SEC appear to have 12 spots for 8 teams. The SEC doesn’t really have a pecking order for their bowls, other than the top 2 and the bottom 2 (Birmingham, Independence).
So if we assume 11 bowls, ACC-ND have 8 teams with 4 losses or less, and 5 more with 5 losses. Six teams are in, 4 are one win away (VT needs 7 wins due to playing 2 FCS teams), 3 are at 4-5. The 7 teams not yet in are at least two losses away from being bowl-ineligible, so no one will get cut this week.
And Syracuse with 6 losses is still a possibility, while GT is not.
So what helps the ACC this week?
- LSU and Alabama staying in the Top 4, otherwise one of them or Georgia is more likely to end up in the Orange Bowl.
- ND beating #21 Navy, while Baylor, Auburn lose to their higher-ranked Top 25 opponents.
- And for BC, a week of recovery before at least one more win in the last two games.
