First of all:
Hardest team to handicap, even with my optimism, since I watched Chris Herren break his wrist in person against Cal State Nobody. At the same time, we know how Major League ended. Spoiler for a 1989 movie: They won the division. So, yeah, I will use this thread as an exercise to talk myself into a fun year. As always. I present you seven things. If five or six come to pass, we will have meaningful late February/early March games that could make or break our chances to make the tournament.
1. There are two Earls. One very likeable guy that you'd like to be here for a decade plus. A guy who seemingly can get reasonably rated guys to come to BC (not easy in 2024), develop buy in, find bigs that are undervalued elsewhere and make them into impact guys (QP, Glock). Then there is get your head out of your ass Earl. Our eyes could always see when lineups didn't work. Where we would leak oil in game. Now the data proves it. He can see moments after the game what guys should play but not play at the same time. What guys should be 10-15 minute guys not 25 mpg guys. I don't want to discount letting a team work out kinks. I don't see them in practice. But you can't hand over 3-5 games every year just by playing bad lineups. BC lost in OT to UVA in the ACCs. Mighty put up a Club Trillion (4 minutes followed by 15 zeroes in the box score). Those are reserved for walk ons! Did QP need a breather? Yes. Was that the way? No. So, #1 will be that Earl needs to get materially better at squeezing all of the juice out of the fruit.
2. Jayden Hastings. My personal favorite. I won't bore anyone again with my valueless in person pregame scouting of Molinari working out the bigs. But I was shocked by how big and skilled he looked vs what we were led to believe. He needs to be a league average big or better. A lot to ask but Glock was. QP certainly was. If the staff gets any benefit of the doubt, it is here.
3. Dion Brown needs to be whoever this guy thinks he is:
4. Donald Hand plays 25+ minutes per game. That means he is playing like the three level scorer and shooter we were promised. Got to give a guy a year to really get back from an in season ACL. He was 38% from three in conference last year. He definitely has the stroke.
5. We need to get the Chad Venning, nationally ranked in offensive rebound rate, block rate, and fouls drawn rate. Not the Chad Venning who is a foul and TO machine. Nothing wrong with a good old fashioned big that doesn't need to float out to 23 feet. This guy played played prep ball with James Bouknight. It's good to be an older big. Also hard to makeover bad habits. But, again, they have done some nice work with bigs.
6. Toews/Payne/Petronio/Kelley have to form a Voltron of bench guard that Earl can mix and match (see #1, though) for 30-35 minutes per game. Shooting, defense, energy. Based on the Toews reports, maybe it's 20 minutes of him and 10 of Kelley? Maybe Payne can actually play? However it unfolds, can't give away points from bad guard subs.
7. Roger MacFarlane:
Shot 38% from three last year. Also took 400 total shots from 2pt and 3pt. If he's content to stretch the floor and maybe be a guy like CHJ that can create his own shot and bail us out of end of shot clock possessions, that's a big win. If he struggles going from the guy to a piece of the puzzle, that's the downside of the portal.
Record: 18-13
Tiebreaker #1. ACC Record: 9-11
Tiebreaker #2. PPG Leader: Dion Brown
Tiebreaker #3. How many: 15.6
Tiebreaker #4. Will we win both long time rivalry games in the Bay Area (@ Stanford, @ Cal): Yes.
