Season Review: Running Back
Andy Backstrom
Staff Writer
Running back was the Holy Grail of Boston College’s 12-personnel offense during Steve Addazio’s seven-year tenure.
Andre Williams eclipsed 2,000 yards on the ground in 2013, becoming the Eagles’ first Heisman finalist to travel to New York for the trophy announcement since Doug Flutie won the award in 1984. Flash-forward to 2019, and AJ Dillon rewrote the record books, logging the most rushing yards (4,382) and touchdowns (38) in school history.
Dillon was the only BC player to hear his name called in last year’s draft. He was the face of the Eagles for two and a half years.
David Bailey was supposed to be next in line.
Yet, after ranking sixth in the ACC in yards per carry (5.7) and piling up 844 rushing yards as BC’s 1B option in 2019, Bailey never achieved the same explosion in the Eagles’ zone run scheme this season.
The junior’s longest run was 34 yards, and he only had two go for 20 or more—seven fewer than he posted in 2019. His setback was a microcosm of BC’s rushing attack. One year removed from boasting the eighth-best run game (253.2 yards per game) in the nation, the Eagles clocked out of 2020 with the 10th-worst rushing yards average (101.7 per game) in the FBS.
Overview
Out the door went the up-tempo yet predictable run-run-pass offense that defined the Addazio era, and in came offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. and his pro-style scheme, built with pre-snap motion, zone blocking, and a greater emphasis on the pass.
Right from the get-go, BC’s run game lagged behind its new-look aerial attack. As a result, the Eagles were pass-happy in the first month of the season. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec dropped back to throw at least 35 times in all but one of BC’s first five outings. But Cignetti was persistent, and, eventually, the Eagles’ offense balanced out a bit, averaging 3.78 yards per rush in the final seven contests of the year.
Bailey, who was named to the Doak Walker Award watch list in the preseason, got the most work in the backfield yet surpassed 15 attempts in just two games. After practically being reduced to a return man in 2019, senior Travis Levy was often called upon to alternate carries with Bailey, not just as a change-of-pace scat back but also as a bruiser through the tackles. Pat Garwo III was mixed in as well, however, he missed five games with a knee injury that he suffered in practice leading up to the Georgia Tech matchup.
Season Stats
Bailey rushed for 503 yards on 127 carries in 10 games, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt—a team high but 1.7 fewer yards a tote than he averaged in his breakout sophomore year campaign. He did have a nose for the end zone, though. In fact, Bailey scored eight touchdowns in 2020 (seven rushing, one receiving). As a receiver, he caught eight balls for 64 yards.
Levy carried the ball more than he had in his first three years at BC combined. His 99 rushing attempts were the 23rd most in the ACC. Despite the increase in workload, the 5-foot-11 back didn’t score on the ground all season. He didn’t get in through the air, either. That said, he was a valuable weapon out of the backfield for Jurkovec. Levy tallied 35 receptions, the third most on the team, for 285 yards.
He did sustain a shoulder injury against UNC, which sidelined him for the Pittsburgh game. Garwo stepped in and notched a career-high 14 carries, albeit for an inefficient 36 yards. In six games, the Levittown, Pennsylvania, native registered 122 rushing yards on 33 attempts, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. He also reeled in seven passes, including six versus the Tar Heels, for 31 yards.
PFF Review
Bailey recorded the highest PFF offensive grade of BC’s running backs in 2020, although his 78.1 rating was 2.2 points lower than his score from the season prior. His 76.9 rushing grade (down from 79.4 in 2019) was 73rd among Power Five tailbacks. Where he did improve, though, was run blocking—and dramatically so. His 75.1 run blocking grade was 22.6 points higher than it was in 2019 and good for 10th among Power Five running backs.
Bailey’s best games came against Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse, in which he averaged 5.4 yards per carry and posted rushing grades of 74.7, 74.4, and 73.1, respectively.
Levy recorded the second-highest PFF receiving grade on the team (78.2), caught 85.7% of his targets, and logged 249 yards after the catch. His 68.8 rushing score was the best of his career. Garwo was third among the three backs in both offensive grade (58.7) and rushing grade (62.4).
Here’s where they stacked up among ACC running backs in elusive rating, a metric that calculates the impact of a ball carrier independent of the blocking up front: Garwo was 26th (77.3), Bailey was 28th (74.5), and Levy was 46th (41.6). Of the 16 ACC backs with more than 100 carries this season, Bailey was ninth in that category. By comparison, he had a 92.2 elusive rating in 2019, and Dillon trailed with a score of 88.6.
Where BC’s backs struggled the most, according to PFF, was breakaway percentage. The stat measures the percentage of yardage gained with designed run plays of 15 yards or longer. Once again narrowing down the data to the 16 ACC running backs with more than 100 rushing attempts in 2020, Bailey had by far the lowest breakaway percentage (11.0%). Ten of those players topped the 40% mark. The next closest to Bailey was North Carolina State’s Zonovan Knight at 24.1%. Levy (12.1%) and Garwo (18.2%) weren’t much better.
Of course, there are a handful of factors here aside from burst and breakaway speed, including scheme and blocking (which go hand-in-hand). The Eagles were behind the eight ball on both because of the pandemic wiping out most of spring ball and altering training camp, not to mention the introduction of a new staff. Still, the analytics are noteworthy.
The Good
Following a surprisingly slow start, BC’s run game showed signs of life at Virginia Tech. It certainly would have produced more than 90 yards had the Eagles not turned the ball over five times and been playing catch-up in the second half. From there, Cignetti’s offense racked up at least 180 yards on the ground in three of BC’s final six games, with a high water mark of 264 yards in a blowout win over Georgia Tech. While few runs really popped, four and five-yard gains helped the Eagles sustain drives in the back half of the season and played a big role in BC ranking fifth in the ACC in time of possession.
Bailey recorded six rushing touchdowns in his final five games and rumbled for a season-high 125 yards at Syracuse. Levy turned in his best PFF rushing performances against No. 1 Clemson (74.9) and No. 2 Notre Dame (70.5) and hauled in 17 passes for 178 yards in the last four weeks of the season. And Garwo bounced back from a midseason knee injury to put up his best numbers of the year: 34 rushing yards on seven carries against Louisville.
The Bad
BC looked out of sorts on the ground when the season began. Over the first four games of their 2020 campaign, the Eagles averaged 1.87 yards per carry. And it wasn’t for a lack of trying. BC ran the ball 129 times in that span, twice spilling over the 40-carry mark. Obviously, the blame can’t all be placed on the backs. After all, the offensive line yielded a sub-60 PFF run blocking grade in three of the Eagles’ first four contests. Still, it can’t be ignored that, in that window, Bailey was the lone Eagles running back to score a PFF rushing grade higher than 67, and that was once—against Texas State, which rounded out the year 113th in run defense.
Even as the Eagles’ rushing attack made strides throughout the season, consistency was hard to come by. Here’s how BC followed up its trio of 180-plus-yard rushing games this season: 67 yards at Clemson, 85 yards against Notre Dame, and -7 yards at Virginia.
Biggest Surprise
There was a question of whether Bailey would be able to replicate his efficiency as the Eagles’ lead back, especially after he mustered 28 yards on eight carries against then-No. 21 Cincinnati in last year’s Birmingham Bowl. But no one anticipated him to stumble as much as he did. It was also surprising to see just how much run Levy got, considering that he carried the ball a total of 23 times as a junior. By midseason, he and Bailey were essentially alternating snaps or drives.
Looking Ahead
Because of the NCAA’s COVID-19 blanket waiver, no player used a year of eligibility in 2020, meaning that everyone can technically come back for next season. Levy hasn’t made an announcement about his plans. Nor has Bailey, who was expected to propel his draft stock this season but fell far short of his 2019 level.
In all likelihood, Bailey will be back, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Levy suiting up for one more ride, given that he’s only been at BC for four seasons (wasn’t redshirted as a true freshman). Garwo will return, as will soon-to-be redshirt freshman Andre Hines, a three-star recruit from Staten Island, New York, who didn’t see the field in 2020. With another year in Cignetti’s scheme and a veteran O-Line, it’s reasonable to predict an uptick in production for BC’s running backs. Explosion will be key for a group that combined for a mere four runs of 20-plus yards this year.
Andy Backstrom
Staff Writer
Running back was the Holy Grail of Boston College’s 12-personnel offense during Steve Addazio’s seven-year tenure.
Andre Williams eclipsed 2,000 yards on the ground in 2013, becoming the Eagles’ first Heisman finalist to travel to New York for the trophy announcement since Doug Flutie won the award in 1984. Flash-forward to 2019, and AJ Dillon rewrote the record books, logging the most rushing yards (4,382) and touchdowns (38) in school history.
Dillon was the only BC player to hear his name called in last year’s draft. He was the face of the Eagles for two and a half years.
David Bailey was supposed to be next in line.
Yet, after ranking sixth in the ACC in yards per carry (5.7) and piling up 844 rushing yards as BC’s 1B option in 2019, Bailey never achieved the same explosion in the Eagles’ zone run scheme this season.
The junior’s longest run was 34 yards, and he only had two go for 20 or more—seven fewer than he posted in 2019. His setback was a microcosm of BC’s rushing attack. One year removed from boasting the eighth-best run game (253.2 yards per game) in the nation, the Eagles clocked out of 2020 with the 10th-worst rushing yards average (101.7 per game) in the FBS.
Overview
Out the door went the up-tempo yet predictable run-run-pass offense that defined the Addazio era, and in came offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. and his pro-style scheme, built with pre-snap motion, zone blocking, and a greater emphasis on the pass.
Right from the get-go, BC’s run game lagged behind its new-look aerial attack. As a result, the Eagles were pass-happy in the first month of the season. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec dropped back to throw at least 35 times in all but one of BC’s first five outings. But Cignetti was persistent, and, eventually, the Eagles’ offense balanced out a bit, averaging 3.78 yards per rush in the final seven contests of the year.
Bailey, who was named to the Doak Walker Award watch list in the preseason, got the most work in the backfield yet surpassed 15 attempts in just two games. After practically being reduced to a return man in 2019, senior Travis Levy was often called upon to alternate carries with Bailey, not just as a change-of-pace scat back but also as a bruiser through the tackles. Pat Garwo III was mixed in as well, however, he missed five games with a knee injury that he suffered in practice leading up to the Georgia Tech matchup.
Season Stats
Bailey rushed for 503 yards on 127 carries in 10 games, averaging 4.0 yards per attempt—a team high but 1.7 fewer yards a tote than he averaged in his breakout sophomore year campaign. He did have a nose for the end zone, though. In fact, Bailey scored eight touchdowns in 2020 (seven rushing, one receiving). As a receiver, he caught eight balls for 64 yards.
Levy carried the ball more than he had in his first three years at BC combined. His 99 rushing attempts were the 23rd most in the ACC. Despite the increase in workload, the 5-foot-11 back didn’t score on the ground all season. He didn’t get in through the air, either. That said, he was a valuable weapon out of the backfield for Jurkovec. Levy tallied 35 receptions, the third most on the team, for 285 yards.
He did sustain a shoulder injury against UNC, which sidelined him for the Pittsburgh game. Garwo stepped in and notched a career-high 14 carries, albeit for an inefficient 36 yards. In six games, the Levittown, Pennsylvania, native registered 122 rushing yards on 33 attempts, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. He also reeled in seven passes, including six versus the Tar Heels, for 31 yards.
PFF Review
Bailey recorded the highest PFF offensive grade of BC’s running backs in 2020, although his 78.1 rating was 2.2 points lower than his score from the season prior. His 76.9 rushing grade (down from 79.4 in 2019) was 73rd among Power Five tailbacks. Where he did improve, though, was run blocking—and dramatically so. His 75.1 run blocking grade was 22.6 points higher than it was in 2019 and good for 10th among Power Five running backs.
Bailey’s best games came against Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse, in which he averaged 5.4 yards per carry and posted rushing grades of 74.7, 74.4, and 73.1, respectively.
Levy recorded the second-highest PFF receiving grade on the team (78.2), caught 85.7% of his targets, and logged 249 yards after the catch. His 68.8 rushing score was the best of his career. Garwo was third among the three backs in both offensive grade (58.7) and rushing grade (62.4).
Here’s where they stacked up among ACC running backs in elusive rating, a metric that calculates the impact of a ball carrier independent of the blocking up front: Garwo was 26th (77.3), Bailey was 28th (74.5), and Levy was 46th (41.6). Of the 16 ACC backs with more than 100 carries this season, Bailey was ninth in that category. By comparison, he had a 92.2 elusive rating in 2019, and Dillon trailed with a score of 88.6.
Where BC’s backs struggled the most, according to PFF, was breakaway percentage. The stat measures the percentage of yardage gained with designed run plays of 15 yards or longer. Once again narrowing down the data to the 16 ACC running backs with more than 100 rushing attempts in 2020, Bailey had by far the lowest breakaway percentage (11.0%). Ten of those players topped the 40% mark. The next closest to Bailey was North Carolina State’s Zonovan Knight at 24.1%. Levy (12.1%) and Garwo (18.2%) weren’t much better.
Of course, there are a handful of factors here aside from burst and breakaway speed, including scheme and blocking (which go hand-in-hand). The Eagles were behind the eight ball on both because of the pandemic wiping out most of spring ball and altering training camp, not to mention the introduction of a new staff. Still, the analytics are noteworthy.
The Good
Following a surprisingly slow start, BC’s run game showed signs of life at Virginia Tech. It certainly would have produced more than 90 yards had the Eagles not turned the ball over five times and been playing catch-up in the second half. From there, Cignetti’s offense racked up at least 180 yards on the ground in three of BC’s final six games, with a high water mark of 264 yards in a blowout win over Georgia Tech. While few runs really popped, four and five-yard gains helped the Eagles sustain drives in the back half of the season and played a big role in BC ranking fifth in the ACC in time of possession.
Bailey recorded six rushing touchdowns in his final five games and rumbled for a season-high 125 yards at Syracuse. Levy turned in his best PFF rushing performances against No. 1 Clemson (74.9) and No. 2 Notre Dame (70.5) and hauled in 17 passes for 178 yards in the last four weeks of the season. And Garwo bounced back from a midseason knee injury to put up his best numbers of the year: 34 rushing yards on seven carries against Louisville.
The Bad
BC looked out of sorts on the ground when the season began. Over the first four games of their 2020 campaign, the Eagles averaged 1.87 yards per carry. And it wasn’t for a lack of trying. BC ran the ball 129 times in that span, twice spilling over the 40-carry mark. Obviously, the blame can’t all be placed on the backs. After all, the offensive line yielded a sub-60 PFF run blocking grade in three of the Eagles’ first four contests. Still, it can’t be ignored that, in that window, Bailey was the lone Eagles running back to score a PFF rushing grade higher than 67, and that was once—against Texas State, which rounded out the year 113th in run defense.
Even as the Eagles’ rushing attack made strides throughout the season, consistency was hard to come by. Here’s how BC followed up its trio of 180-plus-yard rushing games this season: 67 yards at Clemson, 85 yards against Notre Dame, and -7 yards at Virginia.
Biggest Surprise
There was a question of whether Bailey would be able to replicate his efficiency as the Eagles’ lead back, especially after he mustered 28 yards on eight carries against then-No. 21 Cincinnati in last year’s Birmingham Bowl. But no one anticipated him to stumble as much as he did. It was also surprising to see just how much run Levy got, considering that he carried the ball a total of 23 times as a junior. By midseason, he and Bailey were essentially alternating snaps or drives.
Looking Ahead
Because of the NCAA’s COVID-19 blanket waiver, no player used a year of eligibility in 2020, meaning that everyone can technically come back for next season. Levy hasn’t made an announcement about his plans. Nor has Bailey, who was expected to propel his draft stock this season but fell far short of his 2019 level.
In all likelihood, Bailey will be back, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Levy suiting up for one more ride, given that he’s only been at BC for four seasons (wasn’t redshirted as a true freshman). Garwo will return, as will soon-to-be redshirt freshman Andre Hines, a three-star recruit from Staten Island, New York, who didn’t see the field in 2020. With another year in Cignetti’s scheme and a veteran O-Line, it’s reasonable to predict an uptick in production for BC’s running backs. Explosion will be key for a group that combined for a mere four runs of 20-plus yards this year.
