U-turn teams: College football's 15 most improved squads for 2016
Look out for coach Charlie Strong's 2016 Texas squad, Phil Steele writes. AP Images
10:00 AM ET
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Last year, I had 15 teams on my most improved list. Of those 15, 11 went to bowls in 2015, including huge turn-arounds from Michigan, Northwestern and North Carolina.
So who will be this year's U-turn programs?
Here are the 15 most improved teams to watch in 2016.
1. Texas Longhorns
Charlie Strong is 11-14 and clearly will make my list of coaches on the hot seat. He should also have one of the most improved teams in the country. In almost every category, the Longhorns look to be trending up. Coaches usually have a big year in their third year, with the majority of the team made up of their own recruits. Strong has 15 returning starters (second-most in the Big 12), and the offense could have a transformation like TCU did in 2014. They are much improved at QB, running back and wide receiver, and Strong is a defensive-minded coach who is working with eight returning starters on that side of the ball. The Horns get TCU and Baylor at home and face Oklahoma in Dallas, so they must be considered this year's Big 12 dark-horse title contender.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska was just a few plays away from a much different season, with five last-second losses. Really, the Cornhuskers were five plays away from being 11-2. They were minus-12 in turnovers, they're the fifth-most experienced team in the Big Ten and all factors point up for 2016. Despite their 3-5 league record, they were plus-28.1 in yards per game differential and beat the Big Ten champ, Michigan State, at home. This year, they're in Year Two of scheme changes and have 13 returning starters from a team that was much better than its record.
3. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana Lafayette has not won an outright conference title since 1970, when the school played in the Gulf Coast Conference. The Ragin' Cajuns were the only team to win the same bowl game four straight years (New Orleans Bowl, 2011-2014), and had four straight nine-win seasons end last year with a surprising slide to 4-8 in 2015. The Ragin' Cajuns come into 2016 on their longest losing streak (four games) since 2010. I expect that Mark Hudspeth's team makes a big rebound and returns to its winning ways -- including a bowl game.
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Yellow Jackets were the toast of college football at the end of 2014, playing the best football of any team over the final seven games of the year. In 2015, they opened 2-0 but then were just toast after that, going 1-9. They went from plus-11 in turnovers in 2014 to minus-seven in 2015, and suffered five losses by seven points or fewer. They have only three true road games in the ACC and, as usual, play Clemson and Georgia outside of their division. Eight of my nine sets of power rankings call for a six-to-nine win season.
5. Boston College Eagles
In 2015, BC was the first team in ACC history to produce winless teams in both football and men's basketball in the same year. The Eagles had a great defense and a poor offense last season, with 35 first-time players seeing action (fifth-most in the country). They enter 2016 on an eight-game losing streak, but go from eight returning starters to 15 in 2016. All four nonconference games are winnable and coach Steve Addazio is one of the more underrated coaches in the country.
6. Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils had three close losses last year, and all signs are pointing up for 2016. The key to this season is the offensive line and quarterback play. I think at both spots the Sun Devils have the potential to be as good as last year. If that is the case, they have great talent at the skill positions and one of the best defensive front sevens in the league. They are a contender in the Pac-12 South, and coach Todd Graham has to like that the Sun Devils are unranked and an under-the-radar team.
7. Troy Trojans
Troy was just 3-5 in Sun Belt play in 2015 but outscored conference foes an average of 6.1 ppg. They had three close losses, which means they were three plays away from a 7-5 season (and the stats reflect that). While the Trojans lose 24 lettermen, they have 46 coming back. Coach Neal Brown now has two years of his own recruiting classes, and another year for his roster to learn his schemes.
8. UTEP Miners
Sean Kugler will start again from scratch after letting go both coordinators for this year. UTEP had just 10 returning starters last year; this season, the Miners have 13 starters back, plus injured running back Aaron Jones. They were minus-11 in turnovers, and have the third-most experienced team in the C-USA West. They're also the only team to avoid the top three from the East and have three winnable nonconference games. UTEP made it to a bowl in 2014 and I am predicting a return in 2016.
Look out for coach Charlie Strong's 2016 Texas squad, Phil Steele writes. AP Images
10:00 AM ET
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Phil SteeleESPN Staff Writer
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
Last year, I had 15 teams on my most improved list. Of those 15, 11 went to bowls in 2015, including huge turn-arounds from Michigan, Northwestern and North Carolina.
So who will be this year's U-turn programs?
Here are the 15 most improved teams to watch in 2016.
1. Texas Longhorns
Charlie Strong is 11-14 and clearly will make my list of coaches on the hot seat. He should also have one of the most improved teams in the country. In almost every category, the Longhorns look to be trending up. Coaches usually have a big year in their third year, with the majority of the team made up of their own recruits. Strong has 15 returning starters (second-most in the Big 12), and the offense could have a transformation like TCU did in 2014. They are much improved at QB, running back and wide receiver, and Strong is a defensive-minded coach who is working with eight returning starters on that side of the ball. The Horns get TCU and Baylor at home and face Oklahoma in Dallas, so they must be considered this year's Big 12 dark-horse title contender.
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska was just a few plays away from a much different season, with five last-second losses. Really, the Cornhuskers were five plays away from being 11-2. They were minus-12 in turnovers, they're the fifth-most experienced team in the Big Ten and all factors point up for 2016. Despite their 3-5 league record, they were plus-28.1 in yards per game differential and beat the Big Ten champ, Michigan State, at home. This year, they're in Year Two of scheme changes and have 13 returning starters from a team that was much better than its record.
3. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana Lafayette has not won an outright conference title since 1970, when the school played in the Gulf Coast Conference. The Ragin' Cajuns were the only team to win the same bowl game four straight years (New Orleans Bowl, 2011-2014), and had four straight nine-win seasons end last year with a surprising slide to 4-8 in 2015. The Ragin' Cajuns come into 2016 on their longest losing streak (four games) since 2010. I expect that Mark Hudspeth's team makes a big rebound and returns to its winning ways -- including a bowl game.
4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Yellow Jackets were the toast of college football at the end of 2014, playing the best football of any team over the final seven games of the year. In 2015, they opened 2-0 but then were just toast after that, going 1-9. They went from plus-11 in turnovers in 2014 to minus-seven in 2015, and suffered five losses by seven points or fewer. They have only three true road games in the ACC and, as usual, play Clemson and Georgia outside of their division. Eight of my nine sets of power rankings call for a six-to-nine win season.
5. Boston College Eagles
In 2015, BC was the first team in ACC history to produce winless teams in both football and men's basketball in the same year. The Eagles had a great defense and a poor offense last season, with 35 first-time players seeing action (fifth-most in the country). They enter 2016 on an eight-game losing streak, but go from eight returning starters to 15 in 2016. All four nonconference games are winnable and coach Steve Addazio is one of the more underrated coaches in the country.
6. Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils had three close losses last year, and all signs are pointing up for 2016. The key to this season is the offensive line and quarterback play. I think at both spots the Sun Devils have the potential to be as good as last year. If that is the case, they have great talent at the skill positions and one of the best defensive front sevens in the league. They are a contender in the Pac-12 South, and coach Todd Graham has to like that the Sun Devils are unranked and an under-the-radar team.
7. Troy Trojans
Troy was just 3-5 in Sun Belt play in 2015 but outscored conference foes an average of 6.1 ppg. They had three close losses, which means they were three plays away from a 7-5 season (and the stats reflect that). While the Trojans lose 24 lettermen, they have 46 coming back. Coach Neal Brown now has two years of his own recruiting classes, and another year for his roster to learn his schemes.
8. UTEP Miners
Sean Kugler will start again from scratch after letting go both coordinators for this year. UTEP had just 10 returning starters last year; this season, the Miners have 13 starters back, plus injured running back Aaron Jones. They were minus-11 in turnovers, and have the third-most experienced team in the C-USA West. They're also the only team to avoid the top three from the East and have three winnable nonconference games. UTEP made it to a bowl in 2014 and I am predicting a return in 2016.
