Breaking Down ESPN's 2022 FPI Projections for BC
Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom)Publisher
Boston College's spring season is over. The page has officially turned to the 2022 season, and the ball got rolling Wednesday with ESPN's release of its Football Power Index (FPI) projections for this coming season.
FPI was developed in 2013 as a predictive model of team strength and performance. An FPI rating includes offensive, defensive and special teams components. More specifically, these preseason projections are dependent on data from previous seasons, factoring in returning starters, past results, recruiting rankings as well as coaching tenure.
Keep in mind, this metric—like any metric, really—isn't all-telling. For instance, Pittsburgh was ranked 10th among ACC teams in last year's FPI projections and ended up winning the conference. Likewise, Wake Forest, the Atlantic Division champs, was seventh.
Here’s how the ACC shakes out in terms this year's FPI projections:
1. Clemson (23.2 FPI, 4th nationally): 11.1-1.6 (Proj. W/L)
2. Pittsburgh (14.6 FPI, 9th nationally): 9.6-2.8 (Proj. W/L)
3. Miami (12.3 FPI, 18th nationally): 8.5-3.8 (Proj. W/L)
4. North Carolina (10.9 FPI, 22nd nationally): 8.1-4.1 (Proj. W/L)
5. North Carolina State (9.7 FPI, 26th nationally): 8.0-4.1 (Proj. W/L)
6. Wake Forest (9.4 FPI, 30th nationally): 8.0-4.1 (Proj. W/L)
7. Florida State (9.4 FPI, 31st nationally): 7.1-5.0 (Proj. W/L)
8. Louisville (7.7 FPI, 36th nationally): 6.4-5.7 (Proj. W/L)
9. Virginia (2.7 FPI, 54th nationally): 6.7-5.3 (Proj. W/L)
10. BC (1.4 FPI, 59th nationally): 5.6-6.4 (Proj. W/L)
11. Syracuse (0.6 FPI, 62nd nationally): 4.8-7.2 (Proj. W/L)
12. Georgia Tech (-0.9 FPI, 67th nationally): 3.8-8.2 (Proj. W/L)
13. Virginia Tech (-1.8 FPI, 74th nationally): 5.1-6.9 (Proj. W/L)
14. Duke (-7.7 FPI, 102nd nationally): 3.8-8.2 (Proj. W/L)
BC's FPI rating—how many points above or below average a team is—is second-to-last among Atlantic Division teams. Even though it was three points higher last year, the Eagles were also sixth in the 2021 projections. They ended up finishing last in the division with just two league wins, however, quarterback Phil Jurkovec's season-threatening hand injury was a major factor in that result.
FPI indicates that the Eagles have a 52.9% chance of reaching the six-win mark and clinching bowl eligibility for the seventh year in a row. Of course, BC has actually played in a bowl in just three of its last six seasons.
The Eagles opted out because of COVID-19 in 2020, then couldn't play because of COVID-19 and player opt outs in 2021. And, well before the pandemic, the 2018 First Responder Bowl was canceled because of lightning.
BC is also projected to have a 0.7% chance of winning the division and a 0.2% chance of winning the ACC.
The top-four conference title contenders, according to FPI, are Clemson, Pitt, Miami and UNC. After Clemson's off year in 2021, the metric suggests a bit more parity this coming season, too. The Tigers have a 58.7% chance of reclaiming ACC bragging rights. Pitt follows with a 15.8% chance, and then come Miami and UNC at 8.6% and 6.0%, respectively.
To put that in perspective, Clemson went into last season with 72.1% FPI odds of winning its seventh consecutive ACC championship.
BC ranks in the upper half of the league in strength of schedule—sixth to be exact. The Eagles are also 34th nationally in that regard. They entered 2021 44th in that category, in large part because of their friendly non-conference slate. Once again, Georgia Tech has the hardest schedule of any ACC team. The Yellow Jackets rank third nationally in strength of schedule.
Here’s how the Eagles’ 2022 opponents stack up in FPI:
Rutgers (-3.0 FPI, 83rd nationally): 4.0-8.0 (Proj. W/L)
Virginia Tech (-1.8 FPI, 74th nationally): 5.1-6.9 (Proj. W/L)
Maine: N/A (FCS teams don't have FPI projections)
Florida State (9.4 FPI, 31st nationally): 7.1-5.0 (Proj. W/L)
Louisville (7.7 FPI, 36th nationally): 6.4-5.7 (Proj. W/L)
Clemson (23.2 FPI, 4th nationally): 11.1-1.6 (Proj. W/L)
Wake Forest (9.4 FPI, 30th nationally): 8.0-4.1 (Proj. W/L)
UConn (-19.5 FPI, 130th nationally): 2.5-9.5 (Proj. W/L)
Duke (-7.7 FPI, 102nd nationally): 3.8-8.2 (Proj. W/L)
North Carolina State (9.7 FPI, 26th nationally): 8.0-4.1 (Proj. W/L)
Notre Dame (17.5 FPI, 5th nationally): 9.1-2.9 (Proj. W/L)
Syracuse (0.6 FPI, 62nd nationally): 4.8-7.2 (Proj. W/L)
With the Jeff Hafley honeymoon phase now in the past, BC will need to outperform its FPI projections in 2022.
It's Year Three, and a pivotal one at that.
