2021 Opponent Preview: No. 21 Wake Forest
Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom)
Publisher
Every team is beat up at this point of the season, but Boston College is dealing with more than just the injury bug. A flu outbreak this week sidelined 15 players at Wednesday’s practice and could keep some Eagles out for their Week 13 showdown with ACC title contender Wake Forest.
The No. 21 Demon Deacons are hoping to win their first conference championship since 2006 and need a win over BC Saturday to lock up the Atlantic Division.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Eagles. That said, a victory against Wake Forest this weekend changes the complexion of BC’s 2021 campaign.
When is BC playing?
Saturday, Nov. 27, 12 p.m.
Where is BC playing?
Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
How to watch?
The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Series History
BC leads the all-time series, 14-11-2. The road team has won each of the teams’ last six meetings. It will be their first matchup in close to 800 days because of the pandemic. BC and Wake Forest didn’t play each other during the COVID-19-affected 2020 campaign. The Demon Deacons won in 2019, 27-24. BC couldn’t get off the field, allowing Wake Forest to convert 17-of-24 third downs. A halfback option pass from running back David Bailey to tight end Chris Garrison made things close, but BC didn’t get the ball back with enough time to take the lead. The year before that, BC opened ACC play with a 41-34 victory in Winston-Salem before Hurricane Florence hit the Carolinas. The win got the Eagles to 3-0 and lifted them to their first AP Top 25 ranking since 2008.
The series’ most infamous game, of course, came in 2015 when Wake Forest held on to beat BC, 3-0. Jeff Smith, then the Eagles’ quarterback, spiked the ball at the goal line as time expired. It was an ugly, ugly performance from BC. Colton Lichtenberg missed a pair of chip-shot field goals, and Troy Flutie fumbled at the Wake Forest 8-yard line with under two minutes left.
Wake Forest’s Record: 9-2 (6-1 ACC)
Breaking Down the Demon Deacons:
Offense: BC head coach Jeff Hafley talked at length this week about Wake Forest’s “explosive” offense. The Demon Deacons rank fourth in the nation in scoring average (43.1 points per game) and eighth in total offense (490 yards per game). Redshirt sophomore quarterback Sam Hartman is the centerpiece. Like a handful of other ACC signal callers this season, Hartman has broken out in 2021. He’s posting a 31:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, has piled up 3,475 yards through the air and has run for an additional nine scores. Hartman has matured in every way since his 2018 start against BC.
He’s got an arsenal of weapons. AT Perry and Jaquarii Roberson make up arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the ACC. Both rank inside the top 15 for receptions of 40-plus yards. Perry has 1,031 receiving yards, and Roberson isn’t far behind with 953. Perry can go up and get 50-50 balls, whereas Roberson is more traditionally Wake Forest’s slot guy. Taylor Morin and Donald Stewart each have 27 or more catches this year. Notably, tight ends Brandon Chapman and Blake Whiteheart—normally not targeted that often—found the end zone in the last two games.
Wake Forest’s Pro Football Focus run grade (82.5) is eighth in the ACC. The Demon Deacons’ backfield was banged up last week, but Dave Clawson primarily relies on three running backs (Christian Beal-Smith, Justice Ellison and Christian Turner). All three have four or more scores this year, but Beal-Smith leads the group with seven touchdowns and 533 yards.
Defense: Ah, Wake Forest’s Achilles heel. Since the start of October, the Demon Deacons have only allowed fewer than 34 points in a game once, and that was to a Duke team that’s still winless in the ACC. Each of the last three weeks, Wake Forest has conceded at least 40 points. The Demon Deacons have had a lot of trouble stopping the run. They rank 119th nationally in rushing defense and allow 213.8 yards on the ground per game. Linebackers have over pursued gaps, and defensive linemen have struggled to get off blocks. Hence why Wake Forest is 109th in the FBS in time of possession (good thing it can score in a heartbeat).
The Demon Deacons play with four down linemen. Rondell Bothroyd is the name to know. The 6-foot-4 redshirt sophomore leads the team with six sacks and ranks second on Wake Forest in PFF defensive grade (76.1). In addition to his sack total, he’s registered a team-best 29 pressures. Linebacker Ryan Smenda Jr. is at the top of the Demon Deacons’ tackling leaderboard with 63 total tackles. He’s also forced a pair of fumbles.
Wake Forest’s secondary is decent. The Demon Deacons have the fifth-best PFF coverage grade (80.0) in the ACC and are allowing 235.6 yards per game through the air. Hafley mentioned that they play a good bit of three-deep man coverage but will mix in some cover 2. He shouted out cornerback Ja’Sir Taylor, who has five passes defended, three fumble recoveries and one interception. Hafley noted how aggressive Wake Forest’s defensive backs are, which he said he respects. Redshirt senior safety Traveon Redd leads the team in PFF coverage grade (90.6). He’s picked off a trio of passes and allowed 11.8 yards per reception, according to PFF, with a missed tackle rate of just 8.8%.
Special Teams: Nick Sciba is once again one of the ACC’s best kickers. He’s made a league-best 18 field goals this year, converting 18-of-20 attempts with a long of 46. His career long is a 49-yarder. Sciba hasn’t had a season at Wake Forest where he’s registered a field goal percentage below 82%, and he has yet to miss an extra point. Punter Ivan Mora ranks seventh in the ACC in punt average (44.3 yards per punt). He’s landed 14 boots inside the 20 and has had just one touchback this year. On the flip side, Morin is fifth among qualifying ACC punt returners. He averages 9.6 yards per return.
Three Storylines:
Can BC take advantage of Wake Forest’s weak run defense?
Running the ball well is the secret to success against the Demon Deacons. Well, it’s not even really a secret. Wake Forest is near the bottom of the FBS in rushing defense, and, in their two losses this season, the Demon Deacons conceded 330 and 333 yards on the ground. Syracuse nearly stunned Wake Forest in the Carrier Dome and had 354 rushing yards in that overtime affair, and Army piled up 416 rushing yards in its crazy shootout with the Demon Deacons.
Will the Demon Deacons shake their turnover woes?
Wake Forest turned the ball over seven times through its first eight games. In the Demon Deacons’ last three contests, however, they’ve committed eight turnovers. Last week in Death Valley, Wake Forest coughed up three, and Clemson capitalized for 14 points. The Demon Deacons are still tied for 14th nationally in turnover margin, but they’re trending in the wrong direction.
How will BC protect quarterback Phil Jurkovec?
Last week against Florida State, Jurkovec was sacked four times and hit seven times. He had barely any time to throw, especially in the first half, and it derailed the Eagles’ offense. Hafley said it was addressed this week in practice, and that it comes down to not only protecting Jurkovec better but also Jurkovec getting the ball out quicker sometimes. The Eagles can’t afford a slow start against Wake Forest, and that means sacks have to be avoided at all costs if they’re to pull the upset.
Line: Wake Forest (-4.5)
ESPN FPI: The database gives Wake Forest a 59.5% chance of beating the Eagles.
Outlook: BC has lost 22 straight games to teams ranked inside the AP Top 25, including a heartbreaker at Clemson and a Homecoming blowout to North Carolina State this season. The Eagles are starved for their first win over an AP-ranked opponent since 2014. If they do it this weekend, they’ll be a bowl win away from that elusive eight-win season the program hasn’t had since 2009. If they don’t, they’ll be middling at 6-6, and Wake Forest will be doing what some believed BC could before the season: clinching a spot in the ACC Championship. It won’t be crowded at Alumni Stadium, but a lot is at stake Saturday. The odds are stacked against BC, particularly after this week’s flu outbreak, yet Wake Forest isn’t fool proof.
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