2021 Opponent Preview: Mizzou
Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom)
Staff Writer
It’s Family Weekend at Boston College, the school is expecting a near capacity crowd in Alumni Stadium and an SEC team is coming to town for the first time in 34 years.
BC’s non-conference game against Missouri has generated buzz and serves as a big recruiting event for the program.
But the Eagles are underdogs at home. Because of their easy schedule, they have a lot to prove.
When is BC playing?
Saturday, Sept. 25, 12 p.m.
Where is BC playing?
Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
How to watch?
This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Series History
BC and Missouri have never met. The Eagles haven’t played an SEC team since 2008 when they lost the Music City Bowl to Vanderbilt, 16-14. And they haven’t hosted a team from college football’s most prestigious conference since 1987. Back then, BC handed Tennessee a 20-18 upset loss on Halloween. The Volunteers were 5-1-1 on the season before coming to Alumni Stadium. BC is 13-19-1 all-time versus SEC opponents. The Eagles are slated to wrap their home-and-home series with Missouri on Sept. 14, 2024 in Columbia.
Missouri’s Record: 2-1 (0-1 SEC)
Breaking Down the Tigers:
Offense: According to BC head coach Jeff Hafley, Missouri has “one of the best quarterbacks in the country” in redshirt sophomore Connor Bazelak. The reigning SEC Co-Freshman of the Year, Bazelak has posted a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season, while throwing for 897 yards and completing 67.3% of his attempts. He’s great at getting the ball out quickly and is most accurate on passes of 0-9 yards, for which he has logged a 78.0 Pro Football Focus passing grade. On the other hand, Bazelak has only hit on five of his 18 attempts for passes ranging 20 or more yards. The 6-foot-3, 212-pound former three-star recruit can handle the blitz. When blitzed this season, he’s completed 25-of-35 passes for 236 yards.
Part of the reason why it’s so easy for Bazelak to dump the ball off is because he has one of the nation’s best receiving backs at his disposal. Tyler Badie leads the team with 15 catches—a mark that’s tied for fourth among all FBS running backs—142 receiving yards and a trio of touchdowns. The 5-foot-8, 194-pound senior can bounce off tacklers at will. He’s carried the ball 48 times this year for 345 yards and three scores. Missouri also uses Elijah Young (19 carries, 80 yards, one touchdown) and Michael Cox (five carries, 77 yards, one touchdown).
But Missouri does its most damage through the air. The Tigers are averaging 331.7 passing yards per game, good for 13th nationally and third in the SEC. Bazelak spreads the ball around, as 12 different players caught a pass in the Tigers’ win over SEMO last week. Missouri has some legit size on the outside, a matchup problem that gave BC’s undersized corners fits at UMass. Wide receivers Keke Chism (10 receptions, 114 yards, one touchdown) and Tauskie Dove (seven receptions, 87 yards) are 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-2, respectively, while tight ends Niko Hea (seven receptions, 45 yards, one touchdown) and Daniel Parker (four receptions, 38 yards, two touchdowns) are 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-2.
Defense: Missouri has been absolutely gashed on the ground the first three weeks of the season. The Tigers rank 127th nationally and dead last in the SEC in run defense, allowing an average of 269.7 rushing yards per game. BC has made a concerted effort to pound the rock this fall, and Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz knows it’s coming Saturday. The Tigers play with four down linemen, and their best run defender up front is graduate nose tackle Akial Byers, who has registered a PFF run defense grade of 73.3 so far as well as four stops. Byers also has a knack for putting pressure on the quarterback. He has tallied eight hurries in the first three games.
Before the season, defensive end Trajan Jeffcoat earned second-team preseason All-SEC honors, but Jeffcoat has struggled, logging just one sack and a 33.3% missed tackle rate. Missouri, which is tied ninth nationally in sacks per game (4.0), has seen its best pass rushing efforts come from the second level. Linebackers Blaze Alldredge (a transfer from Rice) and Devin Nicholson have combined for 5.5 sacks this fall. They also rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively in total tackles, with 25 and 17 apiece.
Missouri’s secondary is pretty young, as five sophomores or redshirt sophomores see significant time in the back end, either starting or rotating in. Like BC, the Tigers play a 4-2-5 base. They rank 40th nationally and seventh in the SEC in pass defense, conceding 186.3 yards per game through the air. Redshirt senior corner Akayleb Evans and sophomore nickel Kris Abrams-Draine have each nabbed an interception, helping Missouri rank tied for 13th in turnover margin (1.33), but third-string strong safety Jaylon Carlies actually leads the team with two picks. Evans and Calies rank second and third, respectively, in PFF coverage grade, but redshirt sophomore Jalani Williams leads the group with a 78.4 score.
Special Teams: Drinkwitz is worried about BC’s special teams, however, Missouri has some playmakers in that phase of the game, too. It’s a head-to-head of Grants in the punting game. BC’s Grant Carlson was last week’s ACC Specialist of the Week. Missouri’s Grant McKinniss was a third-team preseason All-SEC honoree. And McKinniss currently ranks fourth in the SEC in punt average (42.3 yards per boot). The Tigers have themselves a leg in Harrison Mevis. The sophomore has made all 16 of his PATs and is 3-of-3 on field goals, all of which have been from 40 and beyond. Mevis even drilled a 53-yarder in the season opener against Central Michigan. Missouri is 34th in opponent kickoff return, having given up just two returns for an average of 17.5 yards. That’s something to watch, of course, as Travis Levy has ripped off game-changing returns back-to-back weeks.
Three Storylines:
Will BC finally lose the word “vanilla” from its vocabulary?
BC had a cakewalk of a schedule for the first three weeks of the season. The Eagles played FCS Colgate and a pair of bottom-level FBS teams that have stumbled out to a combined 1-5 record this year. Throughout the offseason, Hafley and his staff talked about how they were excited to roll out new installs this year. We haven’t seen that yet because BC hasn’t wanted to put new plays and scheme on tape for future opponents. Quarterback Dennis Grosel said that BC still has about 75% of its offensive playbook in its back pocket. Unless BC takes control early, we should probably get a good glimpse of what the Eagles have been working on.
How will the Eagles’ defense perform against a talented Missouri offense?
BC is tied for fifth in scoring defense and ranks 14th in total defense. The Eagles have held their opponents scoreless for nine of 12 quarters this season. But how will the group play against a high-flying offense with proven playmakers, starting at the quarterback position? That’s the question, and the answer we get could forecast what the rest of the year could look like for BC.
Can the Tigers stop BC’s persistent rushing attack?
The Eagles aren’t a run-first team. They still want to pose the vertical passing threat they had with Phil Jurkovec under center. But they’re stubborn about having offensive balance, and that has shown the first three weeks of the year. BC wants to run the football and has been more explosive doing that in 2021. Cignetti and Co. will likely rely on Pat Garwo III, Alec Sinkfield and Travis Levy to get things going on Saturday, considering that Missouri hasn’t had an answer for any run game this fall. We’ll see if that changes this weekend.
Line: Missouri (-1.5)
ESPN FPI: The database gives BC a 72.4% chance of beating Missouri.
Outlook: Everyone’s had this game circled on the calendar for quite some time, even before Jurkovec went down with a season-threatening hand injury. BC hasn’t started 4-0 since 2007, and we all know what happened that year. The Eagles no longer have an NFL-caliber quarterback at the helm, but the ACC, and really all of college football, is wide open this year. Beating Missouri gives the Eagles hope at cracking the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2018 and entering Death Valley with high stakes. A loss puts BC at 3-1 and resets expectations for an Eagles team that’s still searching for its first eight-win season since 2009. So a win doesn’t crown BC a contender, but a loss certainly dampens prospects about 2021. These are games Hafley was brought in to win. Missouri is beatable but, by far, BC’s biggest test yet.
