2021 Opponent Preview: Louisville
Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom)Staff Writer
Louisville has lost its last two games by a combined four points. A Boston College dropped snap spoiled a potential program-defining win in Death Valley, and another last weekend was the catalyst for a second-half collapse against North Carolina State.
Both Louisville and BC are looking to snap two-game losing streaks Saturday.
They each have promise, but, lately, things just haven’t gone their way. One team, however, will get back in the win column this weekend.
When is BC playing?
Saturday, Oct. 23, 4 p.m.
Where is BC playing?
Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky
How to watch?
The game will be broadcast on ACC Network.
Series History
Louisville leads the all-time series, 7-6, but BC has gotten the better of the Cardinals in three of the teams’ last four meetings. After Lamar Jackson sliced and diced the Eagles in 2016 to the tune of seven total touchdowns, BC bounced back the following year in a big way. AJ Dillon broke out, rushing for 275 yards and four touchdowns, carrying the Eagles to a comeback, shootout win over Jackson’s Louisville, 45-42. That performance ignited BC’s offense, which had averaged a meager 16.3 points per game amid a putrid 2-4 start to 2017. In the final six games of the regular season that year, the Eagles put up 36 points per game, and Dillon racked up 1,099 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns in that span.
Dillon was out for BC’s matchup against Louisville in 2018, however, David Bailey and Ben Glines filled in beautifully, guiding the Eagles to a 38-20 victory. Of course, the 2019 meeting saw Anthony Brown Jr. suffer the second torn ACL of his career, catapulting Dennis Grosel into action. Grosel completed just nine passes yet three of them went for touchdowns. It was a valiant effort, except the Eagles’ miserable defense couldn’t buy a stop in the fourth quarter, and Louisville kicked a game-winning field goal to clinch a 41-39 win. Last year’s game featured another roller coaster finish. And another Grosel appearance. This time, it was Phil Jurkovec who went down, and Grosel came in to throw a pair of scores and fend off a Cardinals comeback on Senior Day.
Louisville’s Record: 3-3 (1-2 ACC)
Breaking Down the Cardinals:
Offense: Jeff Hafley declared this week that you can’t say enough about Malik Cunningham. The second-year Eagles head coach is right. You can’t. Cunningham has game-changing speed and, like Jackson, he’s more than just a runner. He’s averaging 262.8 passing yards per game, the fifth most of any ACC quarterback, and he’s completed passes of 50-plus yards in four of the Cardinals’ six games this year. Cunningham has also cut down on his turnovers. He’s thrown just two interceptions this fall, the last of which came in Week 3 against UCF.
Of his 18 total touchdowns, 10 have come on the ground. Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield will line Cunningham up in the pistol, use him on the option as well as the zone-read and let him take shots downfield. He’s got an arsenal of weapons, namely tight end Marshon Ford, who leads all ACC players at his position with 27 receptions. Hafley said that, with Ford on the field, it’s almost like Louisville is playing 10-personnel football because of how much Ford resembles a wide receiver. The Cardinals have a boat load of those. Even after losing Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick to the NFL, Louisville has five wideouts with 10 or more catches in 2021. Jordan Watkins leads the group with 22 grabs, but sophomore Tyler Harrell has emerged as the Cardinals’ big-play threat. The speedster has three touchdowns on seven catches this year.
Redshirt freshman Jalen Mitchell gets the most run in the backfield. He’s piled up 85 carries for 357 rushing yards this year. But Satterfield employs an assortment of backs. Junior Hassan Hall (28 carries, 207 yards) and true freshman Trevion Cooley (27 carries, 101 yards) are frequently in the mix, too. When Louisville gets to the goal line, though, Cunningham is the go-to guy.
Defense: Hafley said that the Cardinals might have the most athletic offense he’s seen on tape this year. Their defense, however, isn’t winning any positive superlatives right now. Louisville ranks 116th nationally in yards allowed per game (449.3) and 93rd in points allowed per game (29.2)—a welcome sight for a BC team that has combined for just 20 points in its last two outings. The Cardinals have a 3-4 defense, with redshirt junior Malik Clark lining up over BC center Alec Lindstrom at nose tackle. Defensive end YaYa Diaby is Louisville’s highest-graded defensive player (83.2) with more than one game under his belt this year, according to Pro Football Focus. Diaby has registered only one sack but 13 quarterback hurries and 19 total tackles.
The Cardinals’ sacks have been coming from the second level. Outside linebackers Yasir Abdullah and Jack Fagot—who leads the team with 42 total tackles—have five and two sacks, respectively. And middle linebacker CJ Avery has 1.5 quarterback takedowns. Despite ranking toward the bottom of the FBS in PFF pass rushing grade, the Cardinals are fourth in the ACC in sacks per game (3.0). Louisville is middle of the pack when it comes to takeaways this year. Overseen by co-defensive coordinators Bryan Brown and Cort Dennison, the unit has forced eight turnovers in 2021, tied for 74th nationally.
Kei’Trel Clark is the name to know. The 5-foot-10 sophomore corner has three picks and four passes defended this season. He also has the third-best coverage grade (72.7) on the team and has conceded just 8.9 yards per reception. He’s been targeted 49 times and given up 29 catches. Clark is a bright spot in an otherwise porous Cardinals secondary that is allowing, on average, the fifth-most passing yards in the FBS (298.8 per game). On the other side of Clark is Greedy Vance, a true freshman who is allowing receptions 68.4% of the time he is targeted, per PFF. If Grosel is going to get back on track through the air, Saturday is the day to do it.
Special Teams: Louisville has Hall running back kickoffs, and he’s averaging 22.3 yards per return. Watkins is the Cardinals’ punt return man. They’ve got a Melbourne, Australia, native booting their own punts. Mark Vassett, a 6-foot-4 true freshman, is ninth in the ACC in punt average (43.9 yards per punt), but he is first in the league in punts inside the 20 with 18. He’s also blasted eight punts of 50-plus yards with a long of 73, so the leg is there. Then there’s James Turner, who’s proven to be a pretty reliable place kicker for the Cardinals. He’s 9-of-12 on the year, and all of his misses are beyond 40 yards out. He’s 4-of-6 on field goals between 40-49 yards. He does have one missed extra point, though.
Three Storylines:
Will BC be able to contain Malik Cunningham?
The Eagles have struggled mightily to defend the quarterback run the last several years. In the final seven games of the 2020 season, opposing signal callers averaged 83.4 rushing yards against BC. Cunningham was in that group. He carried the ball 17 times for 133 yards, despite injuring his left hand in the process. Keeping Cunningham in check, perhaps under 50 yards, would be a significant win for the Eagles.
Can Louisville’s pass rush wreak havoc on Dennis Grosel?
Grosel was under a lot of pressure last weekend against N.C. State. The absence of left tackle Tyler Vrabel was exploited. Vrabel could start Saturday. If he doesn’t, Grosel and the Eagles could be in trouble. And even if he does, BC will have to prepare for a linebacking corps that can get to the quarterback.
How will the Eagles get Zay Flowers involved?
Zay Flowers had two catches for seven yards during last week’s blowout loss to the Wolfpack. He’s the Eagles’ best offensive player, and offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. will need to do a better job of getting the dynamic wideout the ball. Will Grosel finally connect downfield with Flowers? Or will Cignetti draw up plays for the junior to receive the rock around the line of scrimmage, giving Flowers the opportunity to make defenders miss in space? We’ll see.
Line: Louisville (-5)
ESPN FPI: The database gives Louisville a 64.9% chance to beat the Eagles.
Outlook: BC needs to turn things around offensively at Louisville like it did in 2017. Or else this season could unravel for the Eagles—one that was saturated with hope after BC stormed out to its first 4-0 start since 2007. Last week was a big game for BC, in terms of Atlantic Division title aspirations. This one is even bigger, in regard to the Eagles’ pursuit of their first eight-win season in over a decade. Louisville’s offense is electrifying. Luckily for the Eagles, the Cardinals’ defense is pedestrian. Knowing these teams’ history, this matchup could very well be another high-scoring drama that comes down to the fourth quarter. Louisville has lost back-to-back heartbreakers. The Eagles will try to hand them a third such defeat.
